Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
