🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro. A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”