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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|