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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.