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Initially, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong position concerning Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "serious consequences" last August if Russia's president carried on obstructing truce negotiations, Trump eventually imposed considerable penalties on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered Putin's capacity to fund his war effort in the region.

Yet, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in danger. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that very independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, the former president seems to consider the war as a mere land disagreement, like giving Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the president. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a charred swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic government that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in place the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would force the nation to abandon the entire this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that represent a key impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a clear path to Kyiv if he later choose to resume the conflict.

Military Limitations

Then, in a move that would facilitate future fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to reduce the size of its troops from their present large number personnel to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's initiative places no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any extremist ideology and activities must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. However, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by holding elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a restoration of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "immediate joint military response" if Russia restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars include unclear to concerning. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

An additional side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. However different from a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary defense against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to react with force to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not